Ay, Oh, Way to Go, Ohio

In case you forgot, the Democratic presidential hopefuls are participating in their fourth candidates’ debate on Tuesday night.

You’re forgiven the mental lapse: Donald Trump dominates America’s daily political discourse in ways unprecedented in modern times – and, lately, it feels like information overload (impeachment, Kurds, his personal taxes, and so forth).

Remember this challenge for Democrats a year from now and well after they’ve settled upon a nominee: while it’s a two-person race in the fall general election, Trump usually drives the conversation based not only on the bigger pulpit that is the presidency, but his ability to drive news via outlandish tweets and off-the-cuff asides.

As for what we’re in store for at Otterbein University, the site of Tuesday’s debate (and no stranger to presidential politics), some random thoughts:  

Joe’s Coat Of Many Colors. If you know your Bible, you might recall that Joseph’s multi-colored coat signified that he was his father’s favorite son. Is the “Joseph” in this debate – former Vice President Joe Biden – still the “chosen one” in this field?

Three weekend polls had Biden even in Iowa, trailing in New Hampshire and way ahead in South Carolina. The Real Clear Politics national average has Biden leading Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren by a scant 1.8%.

A quick Google search shows a Biden’s problem: look for the latest stories that include the family surname and it’s his son Hunter, not his old man, who shows up – for all the wrong reasons (i.e., sketchy foreign entanglements).

Back to the Bible, for a moment: Joseph lost his coat after his brothers sold him to merchants for 20 pieces of silver (the brothers soaked his coat in goat’s blood, and then presented it to their father claiming that Joseph had been killed by wild beasts).

How many (if any) of the other Democrats on the stage who’re willing to publicly bloody Biden is one of Tuesday’s subplots. But that’s if they consider Biden the most prime target of opportunity (as did California Sen. Kamal Harris and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro in previous debates).

Which leads us to . . .

Warren and Peace.  Although the numbers don’t necessarily suggest it, Warren is the frontrunner when it comes to fawning coverage. She has momentum and the money to keep it going (Warren outraised Biden by nearly $10 billion in the third quarter of 2019). 

What Warren also has had: after that awkward DNA ancestry test and the easy-to-mock, bottle-of-beer Instagram livestream: a relatively free ride.

Maybe that changes come Tuesday evening.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (remember him?), out of the hospital and looking for a new lease on political life, has used “the c-word” to describe Warren: “Elizabeth, I think, as you know, has said that she is a capitalist through her bones. I’m not.”

Warren also was on the receiving end of a zinger by Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who took her rival to task for advocating free college for all: “If you want to use a bunch of hard-working people’s money to send rich people’s kids to college for free, then I’m not your candidate. And just because people say ideas are bold doesn’t mean they’re bold. They may be bad.”

A bad night for Warren: if she has to spend the better part of her time in Westerville – Otterbein’s home and a town that swung 13 points in the Democrats’ direction in the last presidential vote – defending why her agenda (and her at-times dismissive attitude to those who don’t share her policies or values) isn’t dead on arrival in Ohio.   

Speaking of dead or live . . .

Who Else? It’s the same 10 Democrats who debated in Houston last month, plus two additions: Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (assuming she doesn’t stage a walkout) and billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer (money can’t buy you love, but it can punch a debate ticket).

The temptation, based on polling data and their differences in substance and style, is to make the Democratic race a binary choice between Biden and Warren.

To paraphrase Princess Diana, is there room for a third person in this marriage?

I’m looking past Sanders, to the next Democrat in line in the RCP national average: South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

“Mayor Pete” is in the news for something that sounds decidedly Midwestern-sensible (ripping rival Beto O’Rourke for wanting to eliminate anti-LGBTQ churches’ tax-exempt status). And he scored points with Biden for coming to his defense with regard to Ukraine.

The challenge for Buttigieg on Tuesday night: politely throwing Biden under the bus while promoting himself as a more imaginative alternative.

Buttigieg previewed this in a recent South Carolina campaign stop, when asked about the main difference between himself and Biden: “Every time [Democrats] won, it’s been when we put forward someone with a new set of ideas who was not overly connected to Washington and typically somebody who stood for a new generation.”

He added: “On the other hand, every time we have tried so hard to play it safe, that we put forward the person with maybe the most familiar face but also the most time in Washington; every single time we’ve done that – going back to Hubert Humphrey – we’ve come up short.”

Speaking of who else comes up short in presidential debates . . .

Moderators. Tuesday night’s affair is a CNN/New York Times collaboration. Translation: like the Acela train that runs between D.C. and New York City, the two outlets offer an East Coast approach to politics that’s obsessed with “Swamp” politics.

Watch for how often the debate moderators choose to focus on impeachment – and how often they turn to more local matters, such as the recent $20.4 million settlement between Johnson & Johnson and two Ohio counties over opioids (in 2017, Ohio had the nation’s second-highest per capita rate of fatal opioid overdoes, according to the federal Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention).

Oxycodone may not be the same click bait as the oxymoronic existence that is the Trump presidency, but it’s more relatable to voters’ concerns – and a big reason why Trump outfoxed Hillary Clinton in the Upper Midwest back in 2016.

If the media better appreciated that, maybe it’s a different conversation on Tuesday night – perhaps with a better chance of juicing viewership.

Enjoy the debate.

I invite you to follow me on Twitter: @hooverwhalen